Maximum word count: 1500 Submission deadline:
20th March 2020
Individual Assignment—Data Analysis and Forecasting
Details of the task
You are working in sales for AutoMobile Inc., a firm of car distributors, who are thinking of expanding into a new market. You have been asked to investigate the factors which determine vehicle ownership in various European countries; the most recent data you can find is for 2018, and is as shown in Cars2.xls.
To prepare for a presentation to management about opportunities for sales in Turkey, carry out the following steps:
a.) Plot scatter graphs of vehicles per thousand population against income, population, population density and percentage of population in urban areas in the Excel file with which you believe there might be correlation. What do your results suggest? [10%]
b.) For the variable which is more closely correlated to vehicles per thousand population, calculate the equation of the regression line, and interpret the results. [20%]
c.) Plot scatter graphs of total vehicle ownership against population, population density per km^2 and population in urban areas. What do these graphs suggest? [20%]
d.) For the variable which is more closely correlated to total vehicle ownership, calculate the equation of the regression line and interpret the results. [15%]
e.) Which of the two regression equations do you think will be more useful to the company? [15%]
f.) Data for Turkey is as follows:
Income Population Population density % urban
6.1 67 90 67
Use this data and the regression equations calculated in b.) and d.) above to predict the total number of vehicles and number of vehicles per 1000 population for Turkey. The actual figures are 6.4 million and 96 per 1000 population. Explain why your predictions differ from these values. [20%]
Student Assignment Guidelines
In your answers, you should demonstrate your knowledge of and ability to explain
and apply statistics theory. You must justify any conclusion you reach
on the basis of evidence provided by you by reference to, or quotation from, the
course notes, textbooks, other course readings, or any other source you choose to use.
As long as your answers give a good justification and demonstrate your reasoning
ability and your knowledge, you can obtain a good grade. Moreover, you are requested to write and submit a final report of two projects.
You have been asked to produce a report. It should contain the following:
• Title Page, including the given title in full.
• Abstract (No more than 50 words)
• Contents Page
• Main body, which should also be organised under appropriate headings.
• Appendices, which should be numbered.
o Make sure you refer your reader to them as required.
• Word count; excluding appendices and reference list
You are not required to provide recommendations.
Your work should be word processed in accordance with the following:
• Font style, Lucida Sans, font size 12
• 1.5 line spacing.
• The page orientation should be ‘portrait’
• Margins on both sides of the page should be no less than 2.5 cm
• Pages should be numbered
• Your name should not appear on the script.
• Your student number should be included on every page.
Refer to your material provided in your skills modules to make sure that you have conformed to academic conventions. Pay particular attention to:
• Your introduction,
• Your conclusion,
• The use of headings and/or signpost words
• Paragraph structure
The university expects students to use Harvard referencing as specified in the book Cite them Right.
for further advice and a link to an online version of Cite them Right
• You should be careful to include citations within your work as well as a reference list at the end. Unreferenced work will fail.
Your word count should not include your abstract, contents, reference list or appendices. You should provide your word count at the end of your report.
Exceeding the word count by more than 10% will result in a penalty of 10% of your marks for your work.
If your work is significantly shorter, then you will probably have failed to provide the level of detail required.
There is more than one approach to answer the questions. Different students will therefore have their own view of answering the questions and how much weight to give any particular element. Whatever their approach, students will need to plan their answers carefully, in order to provide a succinct answer to the questions, within the word limit (1500). In their answers students should demonstrate your knowledge of and ability to explain and apply statistics theory. They must justify any conclusion they reach on the basis of evidence provided by them by the course notes/textbooks. As long as their essay gives a good justification for the answer and demonstrates their reasoning ability and their knowledge, they can obtain a good grade. At all stages they should explain their reasoning in a way that shows their understanding of the theory and empirical studies of the following lecture notes/textbooks:
1.) From Week 1 and Week 6 lecture notes
Students’ answers should be written in an academic manner, presenting their view carefully, justifying their view with rigour and discussion. When they present a relevant theory in your justification, it is good, where possible, to demonstrate your understanding of it by using a simple equation or diagram. In their assessment they could include a brief outline of theory needed in this assessment. They should use the example presented in the question to demonstrate they points. Students are also encouraged to do their calculation in Excel and show their numerical results in the assessment.
The weighting of assessment criteria can be summarised as follows:
Assessment criteria Weight
Application of appropriate quantitative techniques 30
Logical sequence and development 10
Evidence of background reading 10
Appropriate depth of analysis 10
Presentation and interpretation of economic/financial information 30
Use of supporting data/evidence 10
Total mark 100